The Caribbean’s 2025 political calendar reads like a quinquennial regatta, as sleek vessels of incumbency and patched-up boats of opposition are being launched into the waters of upcoming general elections.

One after another, Caricom nations are setting sail, some of its parties on familiar electoral trajectories, others hoping that an unforeseen gust will fill their sails. The wake left by Belize’s election verdict for the incumbent in March, Trinidad and Tobago’s April loss by the ten-year incumbent PNM, and Suriname’s May coalition is still rippling across our region. And as we head into September, eyes are now on Guyana, where the ruling PPP/Civic is widely expected to cross the finish line ahead of the pack.

While the surge in ballot-printing suggests heightened five-year political activity in our regional homelands, it appears history is also telling us we come from a region where a few political parties and its leaders have learned the finer art of staying afloat through storms and squalls.

As Trinidad Guardian columnist Wesley Gibbings has noted, Guyana’s proportional representation system, shared in principle only with Suriname, has produced long political lifespans from Forbes Burnham’s highly questionable mandate of 21 years in power, to the PPP’s own five-term tenure post-1992.

Across the Caricom map, SVG’s Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves’ Unity Labour Party has also strung together five consecutive wins since 2001; and then we saw the PNM in Trinidad and Tobago in free-fall, with its decades-long historical dominance taking a nosedive in April.

Viewed within this framework, Guyana’s September 1 contest is more than just another date in our region’s electoral diary. Instead, it will be a test of whether the gravitational pull of incumbency remains as strong in the oil-rich nation as it has historically across the region.

With campaigning in full swing, Guyana’s political landscape is now entangled in rallies, social media forays, and at times unsavoury rhetoric. While GECOM has approved six parties to contest the polls, in real-world practice, Guyana’s elections have always been a two-horse race. Afro-Guyanese are largely aligned with APNU, while Indo-Guyanese are mainly supporters of the PPP/Civic. Fringe parties have rarely dented this historical binary of support. Even in 2025, with the new parties on the ballot, the real contest still appears to be between PPP/Civic and APNU; with the other parties fractured.

The PPP/Civic retains healthy advantages in a number of key areas, among them being its leadership continuity, and an organisational depth finessed with decades of electoral presence and rootedness. Also among the advantages is the opposition remains in disunity; and then there is that historical binary voting architecture.

It is true that a unified opposition front could, in theory, deny the PPP/Civic a parliamentary majority, setting the stage for a minority government. It is also true that the memory of the 2020 elections, when results took five months to finalise, retains residual foreboding among some members of the electorate.

Yet the historical record and current alignments weigh heavily against a change in government for Guyana. APNU’s credibility remains heavily eroded, and the fringe parties have not made significant inroads to get into lane for the journey to the National Assembly.

Also, the electoral machinery for integrity in the 2025 polls will face unprecedented international scrutiny. GECOM has met with major diplomatic missions, while the US funds most of the OAS observation mission, is supporting the Guyana Police Force with training, and is fielding 50 observers. The Carter Center and EU will also be present, reducing the risk of a 2020-style delay.

As September 1 approaches, a lively campaign in Guyana is masking an emergent and sublime message, which in our political regatta metaphor, shows the captains on some State vessels being quite skilled with tacking into the wind, and with decades of electoral sea-craft, are capable of navigating unpredictable electoral currents.

Similarly, the PPP/Civic, like other regional incumbents with mandates of longevity, is sailing steadily ahead.