Guyana Focus
(First of 2 parts)
Guyana’s sudden oil wealth will come with enormous opportunities, but also risks and challenges. If the wealth is not managed effectively, the economy could deteriorate over the long-term, negating the benefits of its new found source of money.
The IMF used the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) experience to highlight the potential risk that Guyana could face if its’ oil wealth is not managed judiciously.
In its country report on Guyana, released on September 17, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted that income from Guyana’s oil has the potential to transform the economy but will need to be managed effectively to limit macroeconomic distortions related to Dutch disease and governance weaknesses.
The IMF report identified the risks associated with a flood of oil revenues and made several recommendations to mitigate the risks of dealing with the country’s sudden wealth.
Incidentally, oil production is projected to commence in the first quarter of 2020, averaging 102,000 barrels/day (bpd), and rising to an average of 424,000 bpd by 2025. These projections could change with the discovery of additional oil resources as a result of ongoing exploration.
The IMF report states that Guyana’s medium-term prospects are very favorable, with economic growth projected at 4.4 percent in 2019, from 4.1 percent in 2018. Growth will be driven by continued strength in the construction and services sectors ahead of oil production in 2020, and a strong recovery in mining. The commencement of oil production will substantially improve the medium- and long-term outlook as the oil sector is projected to grow rapidly, accounting for around 40 percent of GDP by 2024 and supporting additional fiscal spending annually of 6.5 percent of non-oil GDP, on average. This would boost non-oil GDP growth by 3.5 percentage points, on average.
The global financial watchdog said the country’s external outlook is expected to gradually improve after the start of oil production. The current account deficit is projected to narrow from -22.7 in 2019 to -18.4 percent of GDP in 2020, with the commencement of oil exports. The deficit will be financed largely by FDI inflows and donor-supported investment. In the medium term, the current account balance will improve further as oil-related imports subside with the completion of oil fields and as oil exports from Liza II commence in 2022.
Public debt is projected to peak at 56.6 percent of GDP in 2019 before declining sharply from 2020, reaching 15.8 percent of GDP by 2024, due to incoming oil revenue significantly reducing borrowing needs and lead to an increase in GDP.
The IMF noted that Guyana’s debt-sustainability analysis shows that the risk of external and overall debt distress remains moderate at present, but debt dynamics will improve significantly as oil production begins and will give the country substantial space to absorb external shocks.
However, the favorable outlook is subject to downside and upside risks, says the IMF. On the downside, increased dependence over time on oil revenue could expose the economy to oil price volatility. In addition, excessively rapid increases in government spending from oil revenues could subject Guyana to the “natural resource curse,” otherwise known as Dutch disease, with significant inflationary pressures eroding competitiveness. In addition, a slowing global economy could also affect non-oil exports, particularly sugar, rice, and other commodities.
It was noted that any rapid growth in public investment spending would significantly dampen private consumption and investment due to large crowding out effects. In addition to higher real interest rates from large public sector borrowing in the short term, massive front-loading of government investment spending would lead to higher inflation and a more pronounced appreciation of the real exchange rate, adversely affecting export competitiveness. This would feed into a relatively lower output in the traded sector and exacerbate the “Dutch disease” effects.
On the upside, further oil discoveries and production, if managed effectively, could significantly improve Guyana’s economic welfare over the long-term. Concrete measures are needed to address issues relating to capacity constraints to mitigate the risks of under-execution of public capital investments.
The IMF suggested complementing the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) Act 2019 with a fiscal responsibility framework to ensure effective management of the oil wealth. The NRF Act currently includes a budget transfer rule that ensures in the long-run that fiscal transfers are determined by the expected financial return on the accumulated assets of the NRF.
In the medium-term, the rule envisages a transfer of around half of current oil revenue to the budget. This is to ensure compliance with the principle underlying this rule – that part of the oil revenue is saved as a buffer against shocks and for future generations – and to anchor fiscal policy in a complementary fiscal framework that limits the annual non-oil deficit to not exceed the expected transfer from the NRF.
This would ensure that public expenditure will not lead to debt growing at the same time as the NRF accumulates. The IMF suggested that the complementary rule be phased in over the next three years to allow a smooth widening of the non-oil deficit, relative to non-oil GDP. It is also necessary to preserve the spirit of the NRF framework, which appropriately aims to save part of the income from oil as net wealth for future generations.
In a cautionary note to Guyana, the IMF cited the disruption in the T&T economy caused by ineffective management of that country’s oil wealth. Drawing a parallel with T&T to highlight Guyana’s risks, it said that T&T benefited from large increases in oil prices in the 1970s, enabling the government to use surpluses from oil revenues to invest in large projects – in sectors such as steel and petrochemicals – with the intention of reducing the country’s dependence on oil.
As domestic expenditure expanded rapidly, and wages exceeded increases in productivity by a significant margin, inflationary pressures emerged, eroding the competitiveness of the non-oil economy. Prices of non-tradables, such as real estate, rose sharply in relation to prices of imports and exports. In 1982/83, as global oil prices weakened, and petroleum output declined from peak levels in 1978, the country began to face serious economic problems”, the IMF noted.
It said that the overall public sector fiscal position in the twin-Island Republic shifted from a surplus in 1981 to deficits totalling around 15 percent of GDP in 1982/83 as outlays rose and the decline in oil revenues more than offset the rise in other revenues. Almost 80 percent of the public sector deficit originated from central government operations, underlining higher public sector wages and transfers to cover operating losses and capital outlays of the nonfinancial public enterprises. As a result, the T&T economy contracted by 7.5 percent year over year in 1983 as the decline in petroleum output was exacerbated by the fall in the non-petroleum sector.
Accordingly, T&T became increasingly uncompetitive with an appreciating real exchange rate, leading to considerable pressures on the balance of payments. Consequently, the large stock of foreign exchange reserves that had accumulated during the oil boom was depleted. Significant adjustment started in mid-1980s when the government tightened import and exchange controls and devalued the currency, the IMF observed. Given the risks associated with excessive government spending, the IMF encouraged the government to use the opportunity presented by oil revenues to undertake structural reforms to support economic diversification, tackle skilled labor shortages, and achieve inclusive and equitable growth.
It said priority should be given to address infrastructure bottlenecks; upgrade the education system; reduce youth unemployment; and promote more flexible working arrangements that could help increase female labor participation. The global financial watchdog also highlighted the importance of improving the business environment and enhancing competitiveness; and recommended putting more efforts into developing climate-resilient infrastructure networks.
Incidentally, periodic flooding in coastal areas has had a deleterious impact on agricultural production, hurting farmers, the poorest segment of the population. Instead of focusing on improving the country’s drainage and irrigation infrastructure, the government increased spending of hinterland agriculture, in what many believe is a politically motivated move to hurt coastal farmers who are not necessarily its supporters.
The IMF report identified the risks associated with a flood of oil revenues and made several recommendations to mitigate the risks of dealing with the country’s sudden wealth.
Incidentally, oil production is projected to commence in the first quarter of 2020, averaging 102,000 barrels/day (bpd), and rising to an average of 424,000 bpd by 2025. These projections could change with the discovery of additional oil resources as a result of ongoing exploration.
The IMF report states that Guyana’s medium-term prospects are very favorable, with economic growth projected at 4.4 percent in 2019, from 4.1 percent in 2018. Growth will be driven by continued strength in the construction and services sectors ahead of oil production in 2020, and a strong recovery in mining. The commencement of oil production will substantially improve the medium- and long-term outlook as the oil sector is projected to grow rapidly, accounting for around 40 percent of GDP by 2024 and supporting additional fiscal spending annually of 6.5 percent of non-oil GDP, on average. This would boost non-oil GDP growth by 3.5 percentage points, on average.
The global financial watchdog said the country’s external outlook is expected to gradually improve after the start of oil production. The current account deficit is projected to narrow from -22.7 in 2019 to -18.4 percent of GDP in 2020, with the commencement of oil exports. The deficit will be financed largely by FDI inflows and donor-supported investment. In the medium term, the current account balance will improve further as oil-related imports subside with the completion of oil fields and as oil exports from Liza II commence in 2022.
Public debt is projected to peak at 56.6 percent of GDP in 2019 before declining sharply from 2020, reaching 15.8 percent of GDP by 2024, due to incoming oil revenue significantly reducing borrowing needs and lead to an increase in GDP.
The IMF noted that Guyana’s debt-sustainability analysis shows that the risk of external and overall debt distress remains moderate at present, but debt dynamics will improve significantly as oil production begins and will give the country substantial space to absorb external shocks.
However, the favorable outlook is subject to downside and upside risks, says the IMF. On the downside, increased dependence over time on oil revenue could expose the economy to oil price volatility. In addition, excessively rapid increases in government spending from oil revenues could subject Guyana to the “natural resource curse,” otherwise known as Dutch disease, with significant inflationary pressures eroding competitiveness. In addition, a slowing global economy could also affect non-oil exports, particularly sugar, rice, and other commodities.
It was noted that any rapid growth in public investment spending would significantly dampen private consumption and investment due to large crowding out effects. In addition to higher real interest rates from large public sector borrowing in the short term, massive front-loading of government investment spending would lead to higher inflation and a more pronounced appreciation of the real exchange rate, adversely affecting export competitiveness. This would feed into a relatively lower output in the traded sector and exacerbate the “Dutch disease” effects.
On the upside, further oil discoveries and production, if managed effectively, could significantly improve Guyana’s economic welfare over the long-term. Concrete measures are needed to address issues relating to capacity constraints to mitigate the risks of under-execution of public capital investments.
The IMF suggested complementing the Natural Resource Fund (NRF) Act 2019 with a fiscal responsibility framework to ensure effective management of the oil wealth. The NRF Act currently includes a budget transfer rule that ensures in the long-run that fiscal transfers are determined by the expected financial return on the accumulated assets of the NRF.
In the medium-term, the rule envisages a transfer of around half of current oil revenue to the budget. This is to ensure compliance with the principle underlying this rule – that part of the oil revenue is saved as a buffer against shocks and for future generations – and to anchor fiscal policy in a complementary fiscal framework that limits the annual non-oil deficit to not exceed the expected transfer from the NRF.
This would ensure that public expenditure will not lead to debt growing at the same time as the NRF accumulates. The IMF suggested that the complementary rule be phased in over the next three years to allow a smooth widening of the non-oil deficit, relative to non-oil GDP. It is also necessary to preserve the spirit of the NRF framework, which appropriately aims to save part of the income from oil as net wealth for future generations.
In a cautionary note to Guyana, the IMF cited the disruption in the T&T economy caused by ineffective management of that country’s oil wealth. Drawing a parallel with T&T to highlight Guyana’s risks, it said that T&T benefited from large increases in oil prices in the 1970s, enabling the government to use surpluses from oil revenues to invest in large projects – in sectors such as steel and petrochemicals – with the intention of reducing the country’s dependence on oil.
As domestic expenditure expanded rapidly, and wages exceeded increases in productivity by a significant margin, inflationary pressures emerged, eroding the competitiveness of the non-oil economy. Prices of non-tradables, such as real estate, rose sharply in relation to prices of imports and exports. In 1982/83, as global oil prices weakened, and petroleum output declined from peak levels in 1978, the country began to face serious economic problems”, the IMF noted.
It said that the overall public sector fiscal position in the twin-Island Republic shifted from a surplus in 1981 to deficits totalling around 15 percent of GDP in 1982/83 as outlays rose and the decline in oil revenues more than offset the rise in other revenues. Almost 80 percent of the public sector deficit originated from central government operations, underlining higher public sector wages and transfers to cover operating losses and capital outlays of the nonfinancial public enterprises. As a result, the T&T economy contracted by 7.5 percent year over year in 1983 as the decline in petroleum output was exacerbated by the fall in the non-petroleum sector.
Accordingly, T&T became increasingly uncompetitive with an appreciating real exchange rate, leading to considerable pressures on the balance of payments. Consequently, the large stock of foreign exchange reserves that had accumulated during the oil boom was depleted. Significant adjustment started in mid-1980s when the government tightened import and exchange controls and devalued the currency, the IMF observed. Given the risks associated with excessive government spending, the IMF encouraged the government to use the opportunity presented by oil revenues to undertake structural reforms to support economic diversification, tackle skilled labor shortages, and achieve inclusive and equitable growth.
It said priority should be given to address infrastructure bottlenecks; upgrade the education system; reduce youth unemployment; and promote more flexible working arrangements that could help increase female labor participation. The global financial watchdog also highlighted the importance of improving the business environment and enhancing competitiveness; and recommended putting more efforts into developing climate-resilient infrastructure networks.
Incidentally, periodic flooding in coastal areas has had a deleterious impact on agricultural production, hurting farmers, the poorest segment of the population. Instead of focusing on improving the country’s drainage and irrigation infrastructure, the government increased spending of hinterland agriculture, in what many believe is a politically motivated move to hurt coastal farmers who are not necessarily its supporters.
Georgetown – Although Norway has released all remaining payments from its forest protection accord with Guyana, the APNU+AFC government cannot access the funds due to its current caretaker status and payments cannot be sanctioned until after the expected March 2nd general elections.
“I also believe it was made clear by our minister during the climate summit in NYC that payments will be sanctioned out of the GRIF [Guyana REDD+ Investment Fund] until after the elections have been held and a government with a mandate from that election is in place,” Sunday Stabroek quoted former Director of the Norwegian International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI), Per Fredrik Pharo as saying. “In other words, the money will not be spent until the current situation is resolved,” according to Pharo.
The APNU+AFC government was defeated on a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly last December, resulting in early elections becoming due. In the interim, it is unable to exercise the full powers of government and has been dubbed a caretaker administration by the Caribbean Court of Justice.
Following a meeting between Minister of State Dawn Hastings-Williams and Norway’s Minister for Climate and Environment Ola Elvestuen on the margins of last month’s United Nations Climate Summit in New York, Guyana’s Ministry of the Presidency announced that all remaining payments would be released.
The sums, amounting to around US$50 million, represent the final tranche to be paid as a result of a forest protection accord that the two countries signed in 2009. Under the 2009 deal, Norway agreed to pay up to US$250 million over five years for Guyana’s performance on limiting greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and for progress made against governance-related indicators.
Only a small amount of this money has been utilised and monies were still to be assigned based on performance.
Pharo explained that the monies were being paid into the GRIF, for which the World Bank is a trustee.
Of the payments by Norway, around US$80 million was set aside last year for renewable energy projects. It had originally been earmarked for an equity stake for Guyana in the proposed Amaila Falls Hydropower Project but this was not proceeded with by the APNU+AFC government.
In accordance with the agreement between the two countries, the statement said that the two Ministers agreed that Guyana has met its commitments and, therefore, Norway would disburse all final payments, totalling approximately US$50 million.
Hastings-Williams acknowledged that both countries would have met their responsibilities with the final release. She also highlighted important successes of the partnership and how it yielded enhanced forest governance. She added that Guyana is better placed through institutional strengthening to deliver the Green State Development Strategy.
The statement said that Elvestuen emphasised at the meeting that Norway is impressed with the continued low deforestation rates in Guyana over many years, and also with the substantive progress made on forest governance. The world looks to Guyana for what sustainable development in forest rich countries can be, Elvestuen said, according to the statement.
Pharo reiterated Elvestuen’s position on commitment. “I also think it is clear that this announcement reaffirms that the Government of Norway is still fully committed to Guyana’s green development. How that plays out in future remains to be seen… but as long as the essential meeting of minds on keeping deforestation to a minimum and working towards green, low carbon development, we have a good basis for our partnership,” he said.
“I also believe it was made clear by our minister during the climate summit in NYC that payments will be sanctioned out of the GRIF [Guyana REDD+ Investment Fund] until after the elections have been held and a government with a mandate from that election is in place,” Sunday Stabroek quoted former Director of the Norwegian International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI), Per Fredrik Pharo as saying. “In other words, the money will not be spent until the current situation is resolved,” according to Pharo.
The APNU+AFC government was defeated on a vote of no-confidence in the National Assembly last December, resulting in early elections becoming due. In the interim, it is unable to exercise the full powers of government and has been dubbed a caretaker administration by the Caribbean Court of Justice.
Following a meeting between Minister of State Dawn Hastings-Williams and Norway’s Minister for Climate and Environment Ola Elvestuen on the margins of last month’s United Nations Climate Summit in New York, Guyana’s Ministry of the Presidency announced that all remaining payments would be released.
The sums, amounting to around US$50 million, represent the final tranche to be paid as a result of a forest protection accord that the two countries signed in 2009. Under the 2009 deal, Norway agreed to pay up to US$250 million over five years for Guyana’s performance on limiting greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and for progress made against governance-related indicators.
Only a small amount of this money has been utilised and monies were still to be assigned based on performance.
Pharo explained that the monies were being paid into the GRIF, for which the World Bank is a trustee.
Of the payments by Norway, around US$80 million was set aside last year for renewable energy projects. It had originally been earmarked for an equity stake for Guyana in the proposed Amaila Falls Hydropower Project but this was not proceeded with by the APNU+AFC government.
In accordance with the agreement between the two countries, the statement said that the two Ministers agreed that Guyana has met its commitments and, therefore, Norway would disburse all final payments, totalling approximately US$50 million.
Hastings-Williams acknowledged that both countries would have met their responsibilities with the final release. She also highlighted important successes of the partnership and how it yielded enhanced forest governance. She added that Guyana is better placed through institutional strengthening to deliver the Green State Development Strategy.
The statement said that Elvestuen emphasised at the meeting that Norway is impressed with the continued low deforestation rates in Guyana over many years, and also with the substantive progress made on forest governance. The world looks to Guyana for what sustainable development in forest rich countries can be, Elvestuen said, according to the statement.
Pharo reiterated Elvestuen’s position on commitment. “I also think it is clear that this announcement reaffirms that the Government of Norway is still fully committed to Guyana’s green development. How that plays out in future remains to be seen… but as long as the essential meeting of minds on keeping deforestation to a minimum and working towards green, low carbon development, we have a good basis for our partnership,” he said.
Georgetown – The body of a second crewman from a missing Corentyne fishing boat was discovered on Sunday along the foreshore at Good Faith, Mahaicony, bringing the death toll to two with two more fishermen still missing.
The body was identified as that of Lamar Petrie, 20, of Lot 9 Miss Phoebe, Port Mourant. The body of Kawal Kissoon, also known as ‘Ajai,’ 36, of Lot 233 Letter Kenny, Corentyne, was discovered on Friday morning on the foreshore of the Abary River. Still missing are boat captain Vishnu Seeram, also known as ‘Kevin,’ 20, of Port Mourant and Marvin Tamasar, called ‘Buddy’, 20, of Lot 305 Port Mourant.
The police are reportedly searching the areas surrounding the sites where the bodies were found in an effort to locate the remaining missing fishermen.
The fishermen had left from a private wharf at Number 65 Village, Corentyne, on the fishing boat, SARA 1, to fish in Suriname on the morning of October 5th. They were expected to return 14 days after. However, the unmanned boat was discovered floating aback Cromarty Village, Corentyne, on Friday, with evidence of blood and a missing engine and seine.
Relatives have since said that the men’s clothing, identification, food supply and a chopper were found on the boat while a large pool of blood was covered with part of a seine.
Kissoon’s wife, Tashminie Seecharran, also known as ‘Tasha’, 31, said that they had seen in the news that a body was found at Abary and it was after they were informed that Kissoon was missing that they decided to head over to identify the body.
She identified Kissoon from a tattoo on his hand. “I couldn’t recognise his face, there was no flesh on his face. I see marks of violence on his body and his two foot was swell but I tell them that is his clothes that he work with,” the emotional woman recounted. Seecharran said that she was told that her husband’s hands were tied behind his back and his legs were together while he had a large gash on his body.
There was some amount of speculation initially as to whether the men had reached Surinamese waters since their boat was found aback of Cromarty Village, Corentyne. However, Seecharran said she last spoke with her husband on Saturday evening on his Suriname cellphone number and he told her that they “go Suriname and work them way back.”
The woman said that Kissoon asked about his child and how she was doing and told her not to worry about him since this would be his last trip. According to Seecharran, she always worried about her husband’s safety especially after hearing about previous horrific pirate attacks on the high seas.
She said that Kissoon was uneasy on this trip due to the difficulties he and his captain, with whom he was close, faced on recent trips since they began working with this boat owner. She said that her husband, the captain and three other fishermen went on previous trips where they experienced issues with the seine and the boat and returned without making a profit and owed the owner some money. Another trip had to be cut short after one fisherman complained of health issues, she recounted.
This last trip marked the third time they had headed out to sea since working with this boat owner.
According to Seeram’s mother, Shamwattie Inderjeet, 41, her son, Kissoon and two other fishermen were set to leave on October 4th but Kissoon and her son were unable to do so after the two other fishermen went on another boat to work, despite allegedly owing this boat owner a sum of cash.
She said that that made her young son frustrated and after searching for workmen, Tamasar and Petrie signed up. The parents of the two young men told the press that the lads were on the hunt for employment. They said that once the opportunity to head out to sea to work arose, they jumped on it since it would have meant an income for them.
Meanwhile, the relatives of all the fishermen lamented the lack of information and contact with the authorities. As of Monday afternoon, the families were unaware whether any searches were being carried out; they had no word on an investigation and whether anyone had been arrested in connection with the matter.
They said the only time they spoke with the authorities was when they were informed that their relatives were missing and were invited to provide a statement to the police; they have not heard back anything since nor has any official contacted them.
The body was identified as that of Lamar Petrie, 20, of Lot 9 Miss Phoebe, Port Mourant. The body of Kawal Kissoon, also known as ‘Ajai,’ 36, of Lot 233 Letter Kenny, Corentyne, was discovered on Friday morning on the foreshore of the Abary River. Still missing are boat captain Vishnu Seeram, also known as ‘Kevin,’ 20, of Port Mourant and Marvin Tamasar, called ‘Buddy’, 20, of Lot 305 Port Mourant.
The police are reportedly searching the areas surrounding the sites where the bodies were found in an effort to locate the remaining missing fishermen.
The fishermen had left from a private wharf at Number 65 Village, Corentyne, on the fishing boat, SARA 1, to fish in Suriname on the morning of October 5th. They were expected to return 14 days after. However, the unmanned boat was discovered floating aback Cromarty Village, Corentyne, on Friday, with evidence of blood and a missing engine and seine.
Relatives have since said that the men’s clothing, identification, food supply and a chopper were found on the boat while a large pool of blood was covered with part of a seine.
Kissoon’s wife, Tashminie Seecharran, also known as ‘Tasha’, 31, said that they had seen in the news that a body was found at Abary and it was after they were informed that Kissoon was missing that they decided to head over to identify the body.
She identified Kissoon from a tattoo on his hand. “I couldn’t recognise his face, there was no flesh on his face. I see marks of violence on his body and his two foot was swell but I tell them that is his clothes that he work with,” the emotional woman recounted. Seecharran said that she was told that her husband’s hands were tied behind his back and his legs were together while he had a large gash on his body.
There was some amount of speculation initially as to whether the men had reached Surinamese waters since their boat was found aback of Cromarty Village, Corentyne. However, Seecharran said she last spoke with her husband on Saturday evening on his Suriname cellphone number and he told her that they “go Suriname and work them way back.”
The woman said that Kissoon asked about his child and how she was doing and told her not to worry about him since this would be his last trip. According to Seecharran, she always worried about her husband’s safety especially after hearing about previous horrific pirate attacks on the high seas.
She said that Kissoon was uneasy on this trip due to the difficulties he and his captain, with whom he was close, faced on recent trips since they began working with this boat owner. She said that her husband, the captain and three other fishermen went on previous trips where they experienced issues with the seine and the boat and returned without making a profit and owed the owner some money. Another trip had to be cut short after one fisherman complained of health issues, she recounted.
This last trip marked the third time they had headed out to sea since working with this boat owner.
According to Seeram’s mother, Shamwattie Inderjeet, 41, her son, Kissoon and two other fishermen were set to leave on October 4th but Kissoon and her son were unable to do so after the two other fishermen went on another boat to work, despite allegedly owing this boat owner a sum of cash.
She said that that made her young son frustrated and after searching for workmen, Tamasar and Petrie signed up. The parents of the two young men told the press that the lads were on the hunt for employment. They said that once the opportunity to head out to sea to work arose, they jumped on it since it would have meant an income for them.
Meanwhile, the relatives of all the fishermen lamented the lack of information and contact with the authorities. As of Monday afternoon, the families were unaware whether any searches were being carried out; they had no word on an investigation and whether anyone had been arrested in connection with the matter.
They said the only time they spoke with the authorities was when they were informed that their relatives were missing and were invited to provide a statement to the police; they have not heard back anything since nor has any official contacted them.
Georgetown – Presidential candidate for A New and United Guyana (ANUG), Ralph Ramkarran, says that for the 2020 general elections the party will be targetting those voters who see no future in the ethnic politics that have dominated Guyana.
As reported in Sunday Stabroek, Ramkarran reiterated that his experience in local politics as a member of the People’s Progressive Party and a former two-term Speaker of the National Assembly has shown him that Guyana is not developing because of political instability, which drives away the investment necessary for economic development.
“The message we hope will be successful is that we want to offer a new vision for the country as we go forward. The old vision is for two large ethnic parties to appeal to two large ethnic groups in Guyana for their basic support. This has been made possible by the fact that there are two large ethnic groups which have spawned these two main political parties,” he explained.
As to which demographic of voter he brings to his party, Ramkarran held that the “aim is to bring all demographics to the party.”
“We are hoping to get former PPP supporters, former APNU supporters and a substantial number of former AFC supporters. We are hoping to influence the mixed population as well as the hinterland voters,” he said.
The new party leader noted that ANUG is already working to introduce itself to voters through field visits without the cameras.
Two visits to Berbice, visits to the upper and lower east coast of Demerara and two visits to Linden have so far received a positive reaction, he explained, adding that future visits will depend on the resources the party is able to secure through donations.
“We are living on donations at the moment,” Ramkarran explained, while making a public appeal for more donations.
“We can only rely on donations and fundraising activities which require a lot of effort to organise and requires people to sell tickets. We are appealing to public for donations from the business community and ordinary members of the public. You have $20? We are asking even for your $20,” he joked.
The politician explained that as a party with a small number of members and no established base, fundraising activities are outside its current scope.
“Our membership is small at a hundred plus but political party membership traditionally is small in Guyana. Where a party gets resources is from mass support,” he stressed.
Ramkarran indicated that he would not support campaign finance reforms which would require political parties to identify donors. “Nowhere in this region does a country publish the names of its donors because we live very small society and people are terrified that they’ll be discriminated against,” he said in response to questions before offering to identify donors if other parties do so as well.
According to Ramkarran the introduction of such legislation would see private political funding drying up and therefore require the state to begin financing political activity.
“Either have finance reform with state assistance for political parties or allow the situation to exist as it is,” he advised before noting that his party is likely to support modest reform which would see political parties forced to publicise how much they receive rather than from whom they received funding.
Asked specifically about the danger of donors using such funding to influence policy in their favour via “quid pro quo” arrangements, Ramkarran acknowledged that this was possible.
“There is the opportunity for quid pro quo, there is the opportunity for corruption, opportunity for influence of dirty money in politics but we would agree to any kind of reforms without the naming of people,” he said before adding that these types of issues exist in the largest electoral systems which have measures in place to manage campaign financing.
“There is a limit to what one can do in relation to campaign finance reform,” he reminded.
As reported in Sunday Stabroek, Ramkarran reiterated that his experience in local politics as a member of the People’s Progressive Party and a former two-term Speaker of the National Assembly has shown him that Guyana is not developing because of political instability, which drives away the investment necessary for economic development.
“The message we hope will be successful is that we want to offer a new vision for the country as we go forward. The old vision is for two large ethnic parties to appeal to two large ethnic groups in Guyana for their basic support. This has been made possible by the fact that there are two large ethnic groups which have spawned these two main political parties,” he explained.
As to which demographic of voter he brings to his party, Ramkarran held that the “aim is to bring all demographics to the party.”
“We are hoping to get former PPP supporters, former APNU supporters and a substantial number of former AFC supporters. We are hoping to influence the mixed population as well as the hinterland voters,” he said.
The new party leader noted that ANUG is already working to introduce itself to voters through field visits without the cameras.
Two visits to Berbice, visits to the upper and lower east coast of Demerara and two visits to Linden have so far received a positive reaction, he explained, adding that future visits will depend on the resources the party is able to secure through donations.
“We are living on donations at the moment,” Ramkarran explained, while making a public appeal for more donations.
“We can only rely on donations and fundraising activities which require a lot of effort to organise and requires people to sell tickets. We are appealing to public for donations from the business community and ordinary members of the public. You have $20? We are asking even for your $20,” he joked.
The politician explained that as a party with a small number of members and no established base, fundraising activities are outside its current scope.
“Our membership is small at a hundred plus but political party membership traditionally is small in Guyana. Where a party gets resources is from mass support,” he stressed.
Ramkarran indicated that he would not support campaign finance reforms which would require political parties to identify donors. “Nowhere in this region does a country publish the names of its donors because we live very small society and people are terrified that they’ll be discriminated against,” he said in response to questions before offering to identify donors if other parties do so as well.
According to Ramkarran the introduction of such legislation would see private political funding drying up and therefore require the state to begin financing political activity.
“Either have finance reform with state assistance for political parties or allow the situation to exist as it is,” he advised before noting that his party is likely to support modest reform which would see political parties forced to publicise how much they receive rather than from whom they received funding.
Asked specifically about the danger of donors using such funding to influence policy in their favour via “quid pro quo” arrangements, Ramkarran acknowledged that this was possible.
“There is the opportunity for quid pro quo, there is the opportunity for corruption, opportunity for influence of dirty money in politics but we would agree to any kind of reforms without the naming of people,” he said before adding that these types of issues exist in the largest electoral systems which have measures in place to manage campaign financing.
“There is a limit to what one can do in relation to campaign finance reform,” he reminded.
Georgetown – Effectively mobilised, civil society’s energies can have a positive impact on national elections, according to the Guyana Human Rights Association (GHRA).
In a statement on Thursday, the GHRA noted that national elections have polarized Guyanese society politically and ethnically for the past fifty years and on this occasion it is occurring when the issues facing Guyana require a unified national response.
GHRA said that despite the fact that changing political demographics are gradually undermining traditional ethnic alignments, the race play-book continues to be a determining factor in elections. It said that until the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) is replaced by a modern, politically impartial Elections Commission, Guyanese elections will continue to be seen as the most dysfunctional in CARICOM.
It said however that while the reform of GECOM and other fundamental changes are not feasible in the short-term, this does not rule out the possibility of lifting the quality of the upcoming national elections on March 2nd 2020.
“For example, the parties listing names of candidates in the order that seats will be assigned is within their choice. A commitment to translate 50% of females on lists to 50% of seats won is another improvement within the parties’ choice. More scrutiny can be exercised to force parties to select candidates of integrity, with a record of public service and other qualities necessary for political leadership”, the GHRA stated.
Applying criteria of this nature in the run-up to elections allows voters to exercise some measure of influence to improve their quality. “Civil society can use the current election in this way to sharpen its own advocacy skills and capacity to influence the contending parties. The run-up to elections also provides an opportunity for civic society to review its own role in national politics”, the GHRA added.
It stated that a more robust civil society is an insurance policy to ensure any eventual successful reform of the formal political culture is likely to endure.
“Civic organizations are encouraged to express themselves in ways that build citizenship. Civic influence could be asserted on electoral debates, which need to be rescued from the bi-partisan bullying which debased them in the recent past. Moreover, even when civic bodies are not inclined to take action as a body, their membership should be encouraged individually to educate themselves on issues and take some elementary steps such as making full use of the Claims & Objections period to check the accuracy of their names and other details on the Voters List to guard against allegations of fraud surfacing on elections day”, the GHRA added.
The human rights group contended that while national elections here often appear to be exercises in mass frustration, they also serve as opportunities for re-invigorating public life. Civic interventions, it said, however need to become a continuous part of the political landscape in a more systematic manner and cannot be reduced solely to casting ballots.
In a statement on Thursday, the GHRA noted that national elections have polarized Guyanese society politically and ethnically for the past fifty years and on this occasion it is occurring when the issues facing Guyana require a unified national response.
GHRA said that despite the fact that changing political demographics are gradually undermining traditional ethnic alignments, the race play-book continues to be a determining factor in elections. It said that until the Guyana Elections Commission (GECOM) is replaced by a modern, politically impartial Elections Commission, Guyanese elections will continue to be seen as the most dysfunctional in CARICOM.
It said however that while the reform of GECOM and other fundamental changes are not feasible in the short-term, this does not rule out the possibility of lifting the quality of the upcoming national elections on March 2nd 2020.
“For example, the parties listing names of candidates in the order that seats will be assigned is within their choice. A commitment to translate 50% of females on lists to 50% of seats won is another improvement within the parties’ choice. More scrutiny can be exercised to force parties to select candidates of integrity, with a record of public service and other qualities necessary for political leadership”, the GHRA stated.
Applying criteria of this nature in the run-up to elections allows voters to exercise some measure of influence to improve their quality. “Civil society can use the current election in this way to sharpen its own advocacy skills and capacity to influence the contending parties. The run-up to elections also provides an opportunity for civic society to review its own role in national politics”, the GHRA added.
It stated that a more robust civil society is an insurance policy to ensure any eventual successful reform of the formal political culture is likely to endure.
“Civic organizations are encouraged to express themselves in ways that build citizenship. Civic influence could be asserted on electoral debates, which need to be rescued from the bi-partisan bullying which debased them in the recent past. Moreover, even when civic bodies are not inclined to take action as a body, their membership should be encouraged individually to educate themselves on issues and take some elementary steps such as making full use of the Claims & Objections period to check the accuracy of their names and other details on the Voters List to guard against allegations of fraud surfacing on elections day”, the GHRA added.
The human rights group contended that while national elections here often appear to be exercises in mass frustration, they also serve as opportunities for re-invigorating public life. Civic interventions, it said, however need to become a continuous part of the political landscape in a more systematic manner and cannot be reduced solely to casting ballots.
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